The MORE STEP project, funded under grant 01LC1820A and carried out from 1 March 2019 to 30 June 2023, investigated how human‑induced landscape change affects the movement and population dynamics of the Mongolian gazelle (Procapra gutturosa). The research was coordinated by the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Center (SBiK‑F) in partnership with the Wildlife Conservation Society Mongolia (WCS Mongolia) and several Mongolian conservation leaders, including Dr Shiilegdamba Enkhtuvshin, Dr Kirk Olson and Dr Bayarbaatar Buuveibaatar. Principal investigators Prof Thomas Müller and Prof Thomas Hickler led the effort, supported by post‑doctoral and doctoral researchers Dr Nandintsetseg Dejid, M.Sc. Theresa Stratmann and M.Sc. Philipp Mendgen. The consortium’s work package structure focused on mobility (WP3), abundance (WP7) and coupled herbivore‑vegetation modelling (WP8).
Fieldwork in WP3 involved the deployment of 68 GPS collars on gazelles across a 369 638 km² gradient of anthropogenic disturbance that decreases from west to east. Collared individuals were monitored from 2019 to 2022, providing the first simultaneous tracking of gazelle movements along this disturbance gradient. Long‑distance movements declined by 33.9 % over the study period, falling from an average of 147.9 km in 2007 to 97.7 km in 2020. Analysis of linear infrastructure revealed that fences near railways and the Chinese border imposed stronger barriers than asphalt roads, yet gazelles maintained similar avoidance distances to both fences and major roads, indicating that traffic volume can mimic fence effects. Mapping of permeability produced a tool for stakeholders to identify and mitigate movement barriers.
WP7 quantified gazelle abundance across the 433 245 km² study area, representing 64 % of the species’ known range in Mongolia. The population was estimated at 1.9 million individuals with an average group size of 160. Density decreased from the less disturbed eastern regions toward the more disturbed western areas. Mobility was positively correlated with abundance: areas where gazelles moved more freely supported higher densities, whereas restricted movement in heavily disturbed zones coincided with extremely low abundance. Human disturbances reduced both movement and abundance, with the indirect effect of movement reduction outweighing the direct disturbance impact. These findings suggest a potential tipping point beyond which further disturbance could trigger irreversible population loss.
WP8 introduced a novel modelling framework that integrated moving gazelles into the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ‑GUESS. Simulations from 1901 to 2018 compared free versus restricted movement scenarios, revealing that unrestricted movement increased gazelle occurrence by more than 2.2 × and prevented disappearance in 71 % of the study area. Future climate scenarios (SSP1‑2.6 and SSP5‑8.5) projected population increases of 41 % and 117 % respectively by 2100, driven by lower thermoregulatory costs and higher vegetation biomass under warmer winters. Mobility also buffered populations against drought, reducing declines that would otherwise occur with restricted movement. The model highlighted the critical role of long‑distance movement in sustaining stable, high‑density herbivore populations and underscored the risk of overgrazing and extinction when movement is constrained.
Collectively, the project advanced understanding of how anthropogenic landscape change, climate dynamics, and herbivore mobility interact to shape gazelle population viability. The results provide a scientific basis for conservation strategies aimed at preserving movement corridors, mitigating infrastructure barriers, and anticipating climate‑driven shifts in herbivore dynamics across the Mongolian steppe.
