Between 1 September 2019 and 31 December 2022, the Ostbayerische Technical University Regensburg, through its Research Institute for Energy Networks and Energy Storage, carried out a research project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research under grant number 03SFK2T1‑2. The project, led by Prof. Dr.-Ing. Michael Sterner and Franz Bauer, was part of the Kopernikus Power‑to‑X (P2X) initiative and built on the earlier SPIKE satellite project. Its main objective was to analyse the role of Power‑to‑X (PtX) technologies in meeting the tightened climate targets set by the German Climate Protection Act of 2021. By integrating renewable electricity from wind and photovoltaics into PtX processes, the study examined how sector coupling could reduce greenhouse‑gas emissions and support the decarbonisation of high‑energy‑density sectors.
The research was organised into six subtasks within Task 1 “Energy Scenarios”. Subtask 1.1 coordinated the overall modelling effort and liaised with partners in Task 3 (reflection group) and Task 4 (roadmapping). Subtask 1.2 collected and harmonised data, while Subtask 1.3 defined the structure of the energy system model. Subtask 1.4 prepared the data for implementation, and Subtask 1.5 performed scenario calculations for a range of policy and technology pathways up to 2050. Subtask 1.6 quantified the required volumes of hydrogen, synthetic fuels and raw materials across the electricity, heating, transport and industry sectors. The model outputs showed that, under a 4 % annual growth of renewable capacity, hydrogen demand could reach several hundred terawatt‑hours by 2050, with synthetic methane and methanol providing complementary pathways for the transport and industrial sectors. The scenarios also indicated a substantial reduction in CO₂ emissions, bringing the German system close to the 55 % reduction target relative to 1990 levels.
The study produced a unified data basis that fed into Task 2 analyses and the Roadmap 4.0 developed in Task 4. By providing consistent assumptions on technology costs, efficiencies and resource availability, the project enabled a cross‑sector comparison of PtX options. Additionally, the team evaluated the technologies against the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, identifying synergies in energy access, economic growth and climate mitigation.
Collaboration extended beyond the core team. The project engaged with the Kopernikus cross‑project working group on scenarios, the reflection group in Task 3, and the roadmapping team in Task 4, ensuring that the modelling results were aligned with broader policy and research objectives. The final report, dated 30 June 2023, documents the methodology, results and implications for future research and policy design.